The Transportation Department published the first study, spurred by the 2018 Consolidated Appropriations Act, in the final week of the Trump administration, while the Volpe Center released its study during the first week of the Biden administration.
The advent of automated-driving technology remains a politically delicate topic, with both administrations looking to balance an innovation-friendly posture with one that protects blue-collar jobs.
Finch Fulton, a Transportation official in the Trump administration who now is vice president of policy and strategy at Locomation, a Pittsburgh company developing automated driving systems that incorporate humans into their operations, suggests fear of the potential for job loss is unfounded.
“If you are a trucker today, you are unlikely to lose your job due to automation,” he said.
The average age of truck drivers is 48, according to the “Driving Automation” report. Over the next 15 years, 42 percent of the trucking work force will reach or surpass age 65. Drivers who do not retire before the impact of automation arrives may find adjacent job opportunities. Driving is only one portion of a trucker’s job. Inspections, maintenance and loading still are likely to be done by humans.
Automation does not necessarily mean replacement. Several tech companies operating in the trucking realm, such as Plus, Pronto and Locomation, are first building driver-assist systems that require human oversight rather than concentrating on longer-term fully autonomous systems.
Amid a driver shortage that the American Trucking Associations estimates numbers 50,000 across the U.S. and longstanding retention challenges, driver-assistance systems may actually benefit humans, suggests Richard Bishop, lead for automated-driving strategy at Bishop Consulting.
“Maybe supervised driving is really upping the game in creating an attractive work environment,” he said. “It’s more like having an office job than operating heavy machinery. This could help immensely with hiring of young drivers.”
