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Why Toyota’s profits are rising when sales are falling

November 4, 2021
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Easing chip shortage

Toyota expects production to bounce back gradually starting in December and into next year as the global semiconductor shortage eases, Kon said. But there are still lingering uncertainties about supply, and Kon said it was too soon to rule out further interruptions.

“The risk is becoming significantly smaller,” he said. “However, we’re not in a place to say the risk is zero.”

Toyota said last month it would cut global production for a third time this year as the pandemic and global shortage of automotive microchips continue to bite.

Toyota said it will produce between 850,000 and 900,000 vehicles worldwide in November.

That total represents a 15 percent cutback from Toyota’s revised November production plan to produce 1 million vehicles in the month.

The reduction followed plans to cut October output by 40 percent and September output by 40 percent, as the semiconductor shortage hit home.

In announcing the November slowdown, Toyota said it sees signs of recovery on the horizon. And even with the cutback, the reduced output level still represents an all-time high for the month of November. That is because in August, Toyota actually raised the November monthly target to 1 million units in an attempt to catch up from earlier setbacks.

Blaming the crimped production, Toyota cut its global retail sales forecast to 10.29 million vehicles from an earlier outlook of 10.55 million, including minicar maker Daihatsu and truck maker Hino. But even that represents a 3.7 percent increase over the previous year.

Bullish profit outlook

Toyota lifted its full-year operating profit outlook 12 percent to 2.8 trillion yen ($25.08 billion), and improved its net income forecast 8.3 percent to 2.49 trillion yen ($22.30 billion).

Both the operating profit and net income totals would represent the second-highest earnings on record at the company, coming in just shy of the company’s all-time highs.

Revenues are also expected to reach near record levels at 30.0 trillion yen ($268.70 billion), just shy of the all-time high of 30.2 trillion ($270.49 billion) in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2019.

The July-September results build on a stellar fiscal first quarter.

The country’s biggest automaker notched all-time high quarterly operating profit in the April-June period — and record fiscal first-quarter results for net income, revenue and global retail sales. And it achieved an enviable 12.6 percent operating profit margin for that quarter.

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