Tesla fans on social media, some of whom calculate their own detailed sales projections, predicted an eventual win for the Texas-based automaker over BMW when the final numbers are out.
Twitter user @TroyTeslike estimated U.S. deliveries at 360,199 for 2021. That’s based on Model Y sales of 184,628, Model 3 sales of 151,884, Model S sales of 21,846 and Model X sales of 1,841.
Through November 2021, Experian put Model Y registrations at 153,707, Model 3 at 132,126, Model S at 15,519 and Model X at 1,894.
BMW and Mercedes have traded the U.S. luxury sales crown for the last decade. Lexus last triumphed in 2010, closing out its own decade of dominating the top spot. Last year, Lexus sold 304,475 vehicles, compared with 276,102 for Mercedes.
U.S. luxury sales have been substantially affected by the shortage of semiconductors that control everything from drivetrain management to heated seats. Automakers are selling every vehicle they can produce in the current environment.
Tesla’s rising production from factories in Fremont, Calif., and Shanghai suggest that it’s managing the semiconductor shortage better than rivals, according to industry analysts. And with new factories opening soon in Berlin and Austin, Texas, Tesla is likely to assume the top spot in luxury sales shortly, regardless of 2021 results, Caldwell said.
“Tesla’s incremental sales are a major contributor to the luxury market outpacing the new vehicle market as a whole,” she said. “Tesla isn’t just capturing the luxury consumer. It’s also offering something a bit different to lure in affluent consumers who may have not prioritized buying a Mercedes-Benz or BMW in the past, even if they could afford it.”
