“There’s no doubt Lucid has a great product and seems to have healthy demand, with reservations increasing from 17,000 in November 2021 to 25,000 at the end of February,” said Josh Shastal, director of vehicle forecasting for North America at AutoForecast Solutions. “The challenge is figuring out how to navigate the supply chain and manufacturing issues they’re already experiencing as they ramp up production.”
Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson delivered the mixed news during a fourth-quarter earnings call last week.
On one hand, supply chain problems as mundane as carpet and glass were slowing down production. On the other, the Saudi factory is expected to boost international sales with capacity of 150,000 vehicles by 2025.
“Like many manufacturers, our production has been — and indeed continues to be — impacted by supply chain challenges,” Rawlinson said. “We could have chosen to build faster, be we elected not to sacrifice quality.”
Lucid, which has assembled only 400 cars since production began in September, cut its 2022 production forecast to a range of between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles. It’s previous estimate for the full year had been 20,000.
Lucid’s stock price fell to $22.63 at the close on Thursday, March 3, for a 22 percent loss compared with the closing price of $28.98 on Monday, Feb. 28, before fourth-quarter earnings were released. The company reported a net loss of more than $1 billion in the fourth quarter and $4.7 billion for the year. But Lucid also said it had more than $6 billion cash on hand to fund its growth plan.
That cash will come in handy, Shastal said. “Even their new lower production forecast seems too optimistic, given the current state of the industry,” Shastal said. “The good news is they have plenty of cash on hand, which will give them ample time to make the necessary changes in their supply chain.”
