So far, nine of the 17 U.S. Clean Air Act states have committed to Advanced Clean Cars II: California, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Virginia and Washington. Others, such as Delaware and Rhode Island, have made statements about plans to adopt the rule but have not begun a formal legislative process, said Dan O’Brien, modeling analyst for Energy Innovation.
Drew Veysey, a senior associate at RMI, expects all 17 of the states that follow the U.S. Clean Air Act to adopt at least part of the rule.
“It is a very premiere climate policy, so [for] any state that is serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions, their agencies will be considering adopting it,” he said.
RMI analyzed the effect of the rule in Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina. Applying Advanced Clean Cars II would drive EVs to 25 percent of the market in each state by 2032, RMI said in a post last week. It estimates that EVs will reach price parity with gasoline vehicles by then.
States that don’t adopt the full rule could consider a partial adoption, as Colorado has, Veysey said.
“They can realize many of the benefits if they just adopt it through 2032,” he said. “The more states adopt, the more benefits there are nationally.”
Although Michigan and North Carolina do not follow the U.S. Clean Air Act, they have targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions that could incentivize them to adopt Advanced Clean Cars II, Veysey said.
If EVs are adopted more quickly, the industry will learn lessons sooner and develop strategies for decreasing EV costs, which could eventually reduce EV prices in other states, Orvis said. Advanced Clean Cars II builds on the momentum of EV adoption under the Inflation Reduction Act and helps ensure it continues to accelerate after the tax credits expire in 2032.
“It’s really an opportunity to kind of catalyze the U.S. battery and EV manufacturing industry,” he said.
Veysey said that as new EV sales increase, EVs will become more widely available in the used-car market, where most consumers shop, reducing emissions even more broadly.
“There really is no time to waste,” he said.
