I did consider other variables but wanted to keep it contained to the idea that GP subscribers moving to Xbox is something Xbox can’t afford. You are correct that Sony would gain more from non-Xbox 3rd party sales with Xbox getting none of the sale where they would have taken ~30% for a 3rd party sale on their console. That’s mitigated or offset by two things.
1) There is already a huge disparity in 3rd party sales between PS and Xbox, exacerbated by Game Pass.
2) Xbox loses out on their ~30% cut when a game is played on GP but not bought, and Xbox has to pay for 3rd party games on GP. GP inverts the direction of payment between Xbox and 3rd party devs so that it is Xbox paying the 3rd party devs. That’s an expense they wouldn’t incur without GP.
There are more variables to consider if looking at the broader argument of whether it would benefit Xbox to ditch consoles. (I don’t think GP refunds would be a significant one unless they abruptly end it instead of winding it down.) I was intrigued by the narrower argument that Xbox would make a next gen console because they don’t want console subscribers moving over to PS.
Some Xbox fans still trying to score points for Xbox in a lost war have have tried to cope and lash out by pretending they’re now happy Xbox is going 3rd party and rallying behind talking points that state or imply that they are the real winners because PS gamers will pay full price so Xbox can give them games on GP. I know that’s not what you were doing. I’m saying they have been responsible for pushing that narrative. It intrigues me because the goalposts shifted from arguing that GP is sustainable to implicitly acknowledging that it needs to be subsidized by PS gamers and assuming that MS won’t start prioritizing the higher-paying customers and business model.
I can’t say what will happen. I agree with what you said about unknown information and guessing. It’s okay to acknowledge that and not jump on the internet to assert a prediction. Some prominent users here haven’t learned that. Without going so far as to make a prediction on next gen, it’s not unreasonable to look at the moves MS is making and suspect that they’re moving away from manufacturing consoles, whether that’s represented by a Sega style unequivocal exit or the kind of bait and switch ‘technically if you look at the fine print’ exiting without calling it an exit that they have the money to buy themselves and seems more their style. We don’t know, but there is cause to suspect.
