An asteroid discovered late last year is expected to be in our neck of space in 2032.
The good news? It’s not coming for Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer visible, but NASA squeezed in one last glimpse of it with the James Webb Space Telescope in May before it slipped out of sight. The new set of observations has helped sharpen predictions about where the space rock is headed.
Most of the rocky rubble left over from the formation of the solar system about 4.6 billion years ago is too far away to pose a threat to Earth. But the slim chance of existential crisis motivates many to join the planetary neighborhood watch, keeping an eye on the ancient asteroids and comets zooming through space. After all, no one wants to end up like the dinosaurs.
The updated math has now bumped up the odds the asteroid will smack the moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That means the probability of a lunar collision has slightly increased from 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent.
This diagram illustrates the range of possible locations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 in yellow on Dec. 22, 2032.
Credit: NASA / JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies
Asteroid 2024 YR4 captured a lot of headlines shortly after its discovery because it had a slim chance of hitting Earth. The object is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, large enough to be considered a “city killer.” Studies of the so-called Meteor Crater outside of Flagstaff, Arizona, suggest it was created by an asteroid about 100 to 170 feet wide 50,000 years ago.
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“A similar-size impact event today could destroy a city the size of Kansas City,” said David Kring, an impact cratering expert at the Lunar and Planetary Institute, in a NASA blog.
After months of tracking and refining Asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit, NASA scientists were able to rule out an Earth strike. There’s no real risk to the planet in seven years or afterward, according to the agency. Now the space rock’s only potential target is the moon.
Before you lose your head, relax. It’s not as scary as it sounds. The new statistics, crunched by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, still suggest the asteroid is much more likely to miss it. Even if it were to make contact, it wouldn’t cause a problem for Earth.
“In the small chance that the asteroid was to impact, it would not alter the moon’s orbit,” the agency said.
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In fact, if it did smack the moon, it would probably thrill some astronomers with the chance to observe and collect data on the impact. An asteroid impact would mean a fresh lunar crater — something the battered moon is used to and could provide new insights for scientists into such collisions.
Nations are developing warning systems and defense strategies in case an asteroid or comet should ever meander into an orbit that could jeopardize Earth. As a test, NASA launched the DART mission in 2022 to intentionally crash into a harmless asteroid. The mission succeeded in nudging Dimorphos slightly off its orbital path, proving the agency is capable of moving a hazardous space rock in the future if necessary. Researchers continue to study the asteroid to learn more about the aftermath.
Early asteroid tracking always comes with a cloud of uncertainty, but the accuracy improves with each observation. Asteroid 2024 YR4’s location forecast is now about 20 percent more precise than it was before, according to NASA.
Scientists will have to wait three years — when the asteroid loops back around toward Earth — for another look. NASA plans to observe it again in 2028 to keep tracking its whereabouts.
