S&P Global Mobility expects more than 14.5 million new vehicles to sell in the U.S. this year. The revival of new-vehicle inventory will apply downward pressure to the average age growth rate. Nevertheless, S&P Global Mobility expects more than 74 percent of U.S. light vehicles to be older than six years and the number of vehicles ages six to 14 years to grow by about 10 million by 2028.
For now, older vehicles on the road are boosting the U.S. vehicle service industry. S&P Global Channel Forecast estimates that revenues of the U.S. light duty aftermarket grew by about 8.5 percent in 2022 and may grow by 5 percent or more in 2023.
U.S. consumers’ increasing preference for light trucks, SUVs and crossovers, which are typically more costly to maintain than cars, has also been a booster for the service industry. S&P Global Mobility expects the total number of passenger cars in use in the U.S. to drop below 100 million for the first time since 1978 within the next two years.
By 2028, 70 percent or more of vehicles in use in the U.S. may be light trucks, SUVs and crossovers. Increased demand for crossovers is driving growth in that category, Campau said.
The average age of BEVs in the U.S. is 3.6 years, down from 3.7 last year. New BEV registrations increased by about 58 percent, according to S&P Global Mobility estimates, but BEVs continue to drain from use slightly more quickly than other vehicles, with about 6.6 percent of BEVs sold from 2013 to 2022 no longer in use compared with 5.2 percent of other vehicles.
