I’ve seen a lot of people projecting that the Switch 2 will sell over 100 million units by 2029. While I understand the optimism—especially considering the original Switch’s success—I think those numbers might be overlooking the current state of the market and how much it’s shifted.
First off, we need to stop using early sellouts or pre-order hype as a reliable indicator of long-term success. Every major console that’s launched in the last 25 years has sold out during its pre-order window. Even consoles that were ultimately considered commercial disappointments—like the Wii U—sold out at launch. The PS3, which launched at a hefty $600 back in 2007, still had people lining up. That early rush is almost always driven by the core gaming audience, not the mass market. The real test comes after that honeymoon phase, when sales depend on casual gamers and broader adoption.
And that’s where things get trickier now.
The gaming landscape has changed dramatically. Mobile gaming has completely taken over in terms of both revenue and number of players. It’s bigger than console and PC gaming combined, and it’s still growing. That makes sense when you think about it: everyone already has a phone, and many have tablets too. Pair that with a Bluetooth controller and you’ve got a portable, high-quality gaming experience with almost no extra cost.
Consoles and gaming PCs, on the other hand, require a substantial investment just to get started. When money is tighter for a lot of households and the average consumer is more price-conscious, it becomes harder to justify spending $400–600+ on a single-use gaming device—especially when they already own something that plays games well enough.
I’m not saying the Switch 2 won’t be successful. Nintendo has a strong brand and a loyal fanbase. But I do think people are underestimating how much harder it is today to move that kind of hardware volume. The market’s more competitive, more fragmented, and more mobile than ever before
