Elon Musk, who has effectively admitted cheating at video games, may have found the ultimate cheat code that will turn him into the first trillionaire in the global game of capitalism.
That may well be the story of the SpaceX IPO, for which the company filed its SEC-mandated S1 form Thursday. The document was stuffed with eye-poppingly dubious claims about SpaceX’s future as an AI company, as well as eye-wateringly embarrassing admissions about SpaceX, its new subsidiary xAI, and Grok.
And yet, none of these pokes in the eye seem to stop SpaceX from eyeing a record $1.75 trillion valuation.
What’s in the SpaceX IPO?
SpaceX’s Starship at Orbital Launch Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas, on May 21, 2026.
Credit: Joe Marino / UPI / Shutterstock
To explain how bizarre the filing really is, and how deeply it might sink other offerings, let’s first ignore the words Spacex xAI, Grok, Elon and Musk. Instead, just imagine you’re telling your financial advisor you want shares in a new-to-market space launch company.
This company lost nearly $5 billion last year, on $18 billion of revenue. The revenue makes it look tiny, and its losses are increasing. But so is its revenue, so you have high hopes for its future.
OK, says your financial advisor, raising a quizzical eyebrow. A risky bet, but those can pay off big sometimes. What’s the angle?
Well, you reply, the CEO is all in on AI. This space launch company is actually an AI company now, since it merged in a hurry earlier this year with one of the CEO’s other companies, one he described as “the smallest” of the major AI players. The merger was a millstone, the cause of most of the combined company’s losses.
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Still, AI’s connection to the space launch business makes total sense. The CEO says he’s going to launch AI data centers in space starting in 2028. And you totally believe that, despite this guy having a long history of making bold space-based predictions that don’t come to pass.
Do space AI data centers even make sense? Who knows! “The conditions of space on such AI infrastructure have not been tested, by us or anyone else,” notes the IPO. “Any component failures could result in permanent capacity loss” — since there are no IT guys up there to fix them.
But hey, what could make sensitive data center components fail in space? I mean, apart from the list in the company’s S-1 filing: geomagnetic storms, solar flares, cosmic radiation, micrometeorites, orbital debris, as well as the vibration and thermal shock from launching them in the first place. Oh, and “the useful life of our satellites is inherently shorter than that of the information technology systems and infrastructure they host,” the filing also says, but you’re trying not to think about what that means in a data center business.
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Eh, regulatory filings can be such Debbie Downers! What matters is this guy really believes in his AI product, right? So much so that SpaceX’s IPO claims a $26.5 trillion addressable AI market (compared to the space launch and Starlink connectivity market, for which it only claims a total potential of $2 trillion). That AI product, by the way, comes in “Unhinged Voice mode” and “Spicy Imagine mode.” The IPO notes its “heightened risks” of “reputational harm,” not to mention regulatory and legal harm, thanks to “potentially explicit content … misinformation … exploitative imagery, intellectual property infringement,” or “harmful, harassing, abusive, or discriminatory” content.
What could possibly go wrong?
Well, apart from the international investigations that have opened up into whether this company’s product was used to make nonconsensual deepfakes of minors, as the IPO is also required to note. (You can almost hear the deep sighs of the lawyers who wrote this — but at least they didn’t have to mention the whole MechaHitler thing.)
Speaking of legal harm, you also have no problem with the $3 billion in new data center gas turbine purchases revealed by the IPO, even though this is doubling down on harm for which the company already faces a huge lawsuit from environmental groups. After all, this guy has a history of winning most of his legal battles! Just pay no attention to the last one, where he flouted a court order by skipping off to China, and a jury found he had no right to bring the case in the first place.
Given all that information in the abstract, many financial advisors would advise you the company isn’t worth the risk — if they don’t advise you to get your head checked.
The cheat code at Tesla
Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg in Grünheide, Germany.
Credit: Joko / imageBROKER / Shutterstock
In the case of SpaceX, however, your financial advisor may be rushing to invest before you do. The IPO sets 30 percent of shares aside for so-called “retail investors,” an unusually high percentage; arguably they’re more likely to bet on a name, a personality, a legend, than a company’s fundamentals.
The reason, essentially, amounts to five words: “never bet against Elon Musk.” First uttered by fellow Paypal billionaire and friend Peter Thiel, then SpaceX investor Peter Diamandis, this rallying cry has been taken up by the CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Breyer Capital. It is an article of faith — literally, in articles that use it to wave away Musk’s more baffling moves, from the design of the Cybertruck to the overpriced Twitter purchase. (Which, given that Musk turned Twitter into the less popular X, then folded it into xAI, and then folded that into SpaceX, may go down as the most buried sunk cost in business history.)
Musk long ago mastered the razzle-dazzle of business showmanship. He has learned to dance on ever-higher tightropes of promised futures. At a crucial moment in the early days of Tesla, he offered preorders for the Model S when its prototype didn’t even exist yet. That lesson has come in handy in Tesla’s Cybertruck era, when the company has been saddled with an odd looking, low-selling EV that is becoming ever more of a joke with every wheels-could-fall-off recall and watery misdirection, dogged by cheaper Chinese rivals, and boycotted by much of Europe.
In response, Musk simply squeezed billions more out of the company for the honor of having him stay, then pivoted Tesla towards another, bigger promised future. That future — one filled with humanoid robots and robotaxis — is about as airy, as unproven, and as full of pitfalls (literally, the Optimus robots fall over) as AI data centers in space. But at this stage, Musk can simply insist it’s going to happen, then sit back and dare Tesla investors to bet against him.
The Optimus robots, like the SpaceX data centers, “allow for near term demonstrations that look impressive but aren’t meaningfully revenue-generating, while allowing Musk to make long term projections of ‘infinite’ revenues that can be (nearly) infinitely postponed,” noted Tim Farris, president of satellite and telecom industry research firm TMF Associates. The Rorschach test works for investors who want to believe in the “never bet against Musk” myth.
Never mind that “never bet against Musk” is far from literally true. In 2026, you can make money from short-selling (that is, betting against) Tesla stock, which is down just under 5 percent from where it was on Jan. 1. You could also have made a more than 30 percent return on the prediction markets in the past year, as one canny investor did, by predicting Musk’s DOGE side quest would ultimately fail.
There are signs of cracks in Wall Street’s wall of belief in Tesla. Last year was the company’s first ever revenue decline on the books. Tesla investors are reportedly nervous that the SpaceX IPO is going to cost them — SpaceX, one major Tesla investor groused to Fortune, will become Musk’s “new baby.”
But Musk only has to dance ahead of the Tesla wave a little while longer. If all goes according to plan, and the AI bubble doesn’t burst before he can bring his shiny new space AI baby to market next month, a Musk army of retail investors will help turn airy promises into a trillion dollars of net worth for their hero.
And then…we’re boldly going where no economist has gone before. With access to that much capital and that much voting power — Musk will control 85 percent of the vote at SpaceX, making him virtually impossible to dislodge as CEO — there’s no limit to the height of the tightrope he could dance on. It’s not beyond the bounds of reason to imagine Musk folding a failing Tesla inside SpaceX, then dazzling investors by spinning ever more unproven plans for humanoid robots maintaining space data centers.
In the game of global capitalism, becoming a trillionaire may be the ultimate cheat code.
