New mobile network operators (MNOs) launching services, as well as the entry of new satellite operators such as AST SpaceMobile, will see substantial growth in the direct-to-cellular (D2C) arena, but despite this strong increase, usage will remain below initial expectations, according to a study from Juniper Research.
The Direct to cell market: 2026-2031 report projects that the total number of monthly D2C users whose standard unmodified smartphones will be able to connect directly to satellites will rise from 17.4 million in 2026 to 133 million in 2031.
Yet it also warns that the market faces structural challenges as regards consumer demand. In particular, it highlights losses in coverage that are often caused by dense urban settings and physical barriers such as thick walls, which D2C services do not address. “Consumer demand for D2C is currently concentrated to specific trips and travel, such as to national parks and nature reserves, rather than during everyday usage of mobile services,” said research author Alex Webb.
Despite this limitation, Juniper stressed that D2C holds significant value to consumers living in, or visiting, rural and remote areas, with Juniper Research expecting usage to spike during warm weather.
The report also pinpointed two use cases – voice and data – where it said specific challenges remain. In voice, it noted that such services sit between SMS and data in terms of both technical complexity and consumer value. While voice requires more consistent connectivity than SMS, it is seen as definitely less demanding than full data services, making it a logical intermediate step in the evolution of D2C. However, delivering reliable voice over satellite still presents challenges, particularly in maintaining call quality and managing latency.
Delivering mobile data via satellite in general requires, said Juniper, greater consistency in connectivity, but mainly greater bandwidth, as well as lower latency. All of these requirements are challenging given current technological limitations. As a result, data services are still largely in the trial or early demonstration phase, with limited commercial availability.
The report recommends that going forward, MNOs expand access to D2C services by offering temporary access models to mobile subscribers. By introducing greater flexibility to mobile subscribers, MNOs will be able to optimise access for seasonal and intermittent users.
Meanwhile, the analyst predicts a strong kick-off for 6G communications, which it says will enter commercial availability by 2029.
The 6G market: 2029-2035 report forecasts that the global number of 6G connections will reach 4.1 million that same year, with what was calculated to be 70331% market growth from 2029-2035 to result in 2.9 billion 6G connections by 2035.
The report identified the US and South Korea as the countries expected to lead early 6G commercialisation in late 2029, with 6G network launches expanding in 2030. This is despite 6G currently undergoing development and standardisation by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project and other ecosystem players.
The report adds that by 2030, nine countries will have launched 6G commercially, with North America and the Far East and China showing the way regionally. Juniper expects the leading countries, ranked by number of 6G connections in 2030, will be China; the US; Canada; Japan; the UK; South Korea; Saudi Arabia; France; and Qatar.
Yet it stressed that while these countries will lead the early commercialisation of 6G, others, such as Germany, India and the UAE, are also expected to play key roles in its development and commercialisation.
Looking at where it expects commercial gains to be delivered, Juniper emphasised that with mobile data traffic growth decelerating and gains in consumer average revenue per user limited relative to traffic growth, 6G investment must go beyond traditional connectivity services.
It said that instead, 6G must also serve as the enabler of key value-added services such as voice artificial intelligence, which mobile network operators can integrate with their existing services to consumers and enterprises, unlocking new revenue streams.
