Seven years after the first commercial introduction of the next-gen mobile infrastructure, 5G mobile subscriptions passed the three billion mark in the first quarter of 2026, while the incessant rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has seen mobile traffic make a significant change in nature, with uplink surging, according to the latest Ericsson mobility report (EMR).
Ericsson’s June 2026 analysis of the global telecoms market found that 162 million new 5G subscriptions were added globally in the first quarter of this year, bringing the total to 3.1 billion. Ericsson expects this figure to grow rapidly and more than double (to 6.4 billion) by the end of 2031.
In all, the survey calculated that 5G networks handled 48% of all mobile data traffic at the end of 2025, with that figure expected to rise to 85% by the end of 2031. It forecast that Western Europe, North America, Northeast Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will have 5G mobile subscription adoption close to, or above, 90% by the end of 2031.
Some 390 service providers have launched commercial 5G services to date, more than 90 of which have launched 5G Standalone (SA) services. The number of commercial differentiated connectivity service offerings based on 5G SA network slicing from service providers – with the ability to deliver guaranteed quality of service for use cases through securing slices of the network – was found to be continuing to grow at pace.
The total increased from 65 in the November 2025 EMR to 84 across all regions in the June 2026 edition, indicating that services based on differentiated connectivity are moving from early adoption to mainstream commercialisation.
Service providers were busily introducing speed-based tariff plans for fixed wireless access (FWA) as part of a structured monetisation strategy targeting different market segments. The share of FWA service providers offering the service over 5G reached 71%, up from 57% in June 2025 – the largest annual increase in four years of the EMR.
Speed-based tariff plans are now offered by 57% of FWA service providers, up from 51% a year ago. Ericsson observed that this diverse momentum was reflected in new 5G FWA launches in Algeria, Argentina, Bangladesh, Morocco, Taiwan, Türkiye and Vietnam.
Uptake of 5G FWA connections is strongest in North America, the Nordics, GCC countries and parts of Asia, spanning markets with more than 95% fibre-connected homes to low-average revenue per user markets, such as India. However, growth in Latin America, Africa and parts of Southeast Asia remains limited, despite long-term potential.
Another fascinating trend revealed was that uplink traffic was found to be growing faster than downlink for most service providers – in some instances, significantly faster. Based on network traffic measurements conducted by Ericsson, 43 out of 55 service providers experienced a higher uplink growth rate than downlink, while 17 out of 55 service providers experienced an uplink growth rate more than 1.5 times higher than downlink.
Mobile networks are no longer only about providing best-effort connectivity; they are becoming critical, intelligent infrastructure that meets diverse application needs Erik Ekudden, Ericsson
Ericsson scenario modelling suggests additional AI traffic could result in uplink traffic being three times higher or more in 2031, compared with 2025. The main current drivers of this are smartphone communication and collaboration apps, the sharing of user-generated content and cloud storage.
Network data traffic – for both mobile and FWA – grew by 22% year on year for the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, exceeding expectations. This was driven mainly by continued strong growth in India and North America.
In addition to 5G, Ericsson also studied the growth of 6G. The report noted that early expectations include full support for integrated sensing and communication (ISAC), seamless integration between terrestrial and satellite networks to reduce coverage gaps, and a strong focus on energy efficiency – all driven by AI-native 6G.
Ericsson believes the first implementable 6G specifications will be finalised by the end of 2028 or early 2029. The first commercial 6G services are expected to follow around 2030, with varying subsequent uptake between regions and countries. As with 5G launches, the US, China, Japan, South Korea and the GCC countries are expected to be early adopters.
Commenting on the study and trends, Ericsson EMR publisher and chief technology officer, Erik Ekudden, said: “With the upcoming transition to physical AI, traffic patterns will fundamentally shift as we move from centralised models in datacentres to distributed, autonomous AI agents embedded across our devices, vehicles and cities, commonly connected by 5G.
“Mobile networks are no longer only about providing best-effort connectivity; they are becoming critical, intelligent infrastructure that meets diverse application needs. Reflecting part of this shift is the continued rise in new commercial service offerings based on 5G Standalone network slicing and the number of communications service providers deploying 5G SA.”
