The first half of 2026 has been marked by waves of economic uncertainty. From fuel prices to inflation to market dives, here’s why leaders should stay flexible as they prepare for the uncertain months ahead.
Furthermore, it has been marked by significant economic volatility. Business leaders have had to navigate a uniquely unpredictable market defined by wild swings in gas prices, better-than-expected inflation readings, jumpy consumer behavior and jittery markets.
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As leaders look to the months ahead, they are bracing for more volatility. Here’s a quick snapshot of the past six months and a look at how flexibility will define success in the latter half of 2026.
Unpredictable Fuel Prices
In 2025, EY noted that fuel would be a difficult area of the economy to prepare for in the short term. While some market conditions appeared favorable, EY also noted that the global nature of the oil, gas and chemicals sector continued to create uncertainty.
In 2026, that prediction has been proven true more than once. By March, gas prices jumped sharply in reaction to global supply concerns. Crude oil prices rose quickly, pushing prices at the pump from $2.98 per gallon of regular gasoline in late February to $4.08 per gallon on April 2, more than a dollar in just over a month.
Easing tensions in late spring led to a quick drop as supply fears faded. All seemed to be heading back to normal. But by mid-summer, prices were on the rise again as potential oil supply chain disruptions once again became a topic of concern.
While there is no clear indicator of what is to come next, a year ago EY was already saying that companies will face a degree of uncertainty that will be higher than has been seen in several years. This won’t necessarily lead to higher fuel prices and less activity in the latter half of 2026. But it is a distinct possibility, and businesses are clearly bracing for the unknown.
EY added that even in the oil, gas and chemicals sector itself, businesses are looking for ways to manage the uncertainty. Mergers and acquisitions will likely continue, fueled by companies looking for cost advantages that reinforce their ability to survive economic downturns.
Inflation and Markets Aren’t Helping Ease Volatility
While gasoline prices have a trickle-down effect on the global economy, there are other factors that are exacerbating the current state of the economy, as well. Once again, these are a melting pot of good and bad news that is making it increasingly difficult for leaders to predict what comes next.
For example, in June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading dropped by 0.4%. This brought the annual inflation rate down to a less-than-expected 3.5% reading. This was pleasant news for consumers and business owners alike.
Despite the good news, a simultaneous tech sell-off in June hit stocks hard. The tech sector was particularly vulnerable, and in a single day early in the month, the Nasdaq dropped by 4.1%, resulting in the loss of an entire month of gains. The sell-off has continued in fits and starts, and as of this writing, even the much-lauded ticker for an industry-leading space company has dropped below its IPO price within weeks of meteoric initial gains.
Planning in an Unplannable Economy
The one predictable thing in the current economy is that nothing is consistent. Good news and bad news are balanced, pulling markets in different directions and leaving many businesses bracing for more economic volatility in the months to come.
The hardest part of the equation is the fact that few, if any, of these developments are actually resolved. Gas prices, for instance, could continue to rise, limiting consumer spending. But they could also find relief if geopolitical tensions ease again. If that were to happen, it could open opportunities for businesses to take advantage of improved consumer sentiment.
The real factor all business leaders should be investing in isn’t predicting an accurate roadmap for the next few months. Instead, they should be investing in adaptability, resiliency and contingency plans. The more leaders can maintain a degree of flexibility through things like cash savings and flexible decision-making, the more likely they will be to make the most of the months ahead.
