Propelled by Starlink, the global satellite industry has shown solid growth during the third quarter of 2026, and data sovereignty is becoming a key issue, according to research from GSMA Intelligence.
The study presents three key takeaways in Q3 2026, namely the Starlink factor as demonstrated by SpaceX’s Q2 results; further vertical integration, as highlighted by Rocket Lab’s Iridium bid; and the growing issue of data sovereignty.
Overall, the study showed there were 144 comms operators with a satellite service, up from 132 at the end of Q2, with 46 live and 98 in the planning or testing phase. The latter compared with 43 and 89 at the end of June 2026, respectively. The Q3 footprint covered 6,182 million mobile connections, with a 68% share of the total comms connections base covered by satellites and non-terrestrial networks.
Assessing the key trends in the market, the study showed satellite is becoming a credible network extension, with recent direct-to-device (D2D) trials showing a path to extending mobile coverage without building terrestrial infrastructure in hard-to-reach areas.
Indeed, the study noted that D2D is moving closer to commercial reality with various launches across the world (Airtel Africa and Au in the Philippines and New Zealand), indicating deployments continue to move towards commercial reality, with coverage likely to expand to worldwide by 2028 for several providers.
In this expanding addressable satellite market, new capacity, D2D development and regulatory approvals were shown to be simultaneously increasing the potential role of satellite across broadband, mobile, enterprise and resilience use cases.
Looking at technological developments, the research found that capacity is scaling up, driven in Q3 by the Viasat-3 F3 and F2 crafts entering service, completing the next-generation constellation and significantly expanding global capacity. In addition, satellite networks were becoming more integrated with telcos. The 2degrees model with AST SpaceMobile was hailed as demonstrating satellite connectivity being delivered through a mobile operator’s existing network and customer proposition.
Another key trend noted was that European operators are exploring a joint bid for European Union satellite spectrum, signalling greater telco involvement in satellite infrastructure and D2D.
But the key driver was Starlink, which in SpaceX’s Q2 results showed connectivity revenues of $4.3bn, up 66% year-on-year, with a 29% free-cash-flow margin. The GSMA noted that Starlink’s Q2 revenue would translate to around $17.2bn on an annualised basis, representing 1.1% of the $1.6tn connectivity total addressable market cited in SpaceX’s IPO materials.
The report said it was clear the company was dead set on establishing a bona fide cross-US network, with a recent 800 MHz acquisition of spectrum from Grain being a fundamental underpinning.
Going forward, the report said that for telecoms operators, Starlink was a “frenemy”, with a recent US mobile operator joint venture being an example of a defensive response. Yet for satellite competitors, the report predicted that competing on connectivity alone will be difficult, with service differentiation likely to centre increasingly on operator integration, spectrum, coverage, regulation and sovereignty.
Overall, the study also highlighted that sovereignty was becoming a more explicit component of satellite strategy, with governments and operators seeking greater control over critical connectivity infrastructure.
