“While both Japanese companies built a U.S. legacy with phenomenal fuel economy and powertrain technologies — including electrification through hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell electric vehicles — both have been caught flat-footed in the context of 2022,” S&P Global said.
Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. executives have said they are accelerating EV projects after waiting for the market to mature.
EV share in the U.S. has more than doubled to 5.2 percent in the 12-month period ending Sept. 30, S&P Global said, citing registration data.
And battery-electric vehicle share in California — a traditional stronghold for Toyota and Honda — reached 16 percent through the third quarter of 2022, according to Experian. Toyota held its No. 1 spot in California so far this year, but newcomer Tesla was No. 2, Ford was No. 3 and Honda was No. 4, registration data shows.
“S&P Global Mobility conquest data for Tesla’s Model 3 and Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Chevrolet Bolt show strong captures of buyers from the two leading Japanese brands,” the data firm said.
In the period from October 2021 to September 2022, about 15 percent of Tesla’s conquests came from Toyota and 13 percent from Honda, S&P Global said. Nearly 7 percent of Tesla’s conquests came from BMW in the same period and 6.2 percent from Mercedes-Benz.
“The top-five Model Y conquests are the Lexus RX, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Honda Odyssey and Honda Accord,” S&P Global said. “Meanwhile, the top five Model 3 conquests are the Honda Civic, Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.”
While EVs are still a relatively small percentage of the auto market compared to internal combustion vehicles, the trajectory for EVs is strong, S&P Global said.
“Evaluating EV market performance requires looking through a lower-volume lens than with traditional ICE [internal combustion engine] products,” said Stephanie Brinley, a senior analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “But growth prospects for EV products are strong, investment is massive and the regulatory environment in the U.S. and globally suggests that these are the solution for the future.”
S&P Global predicts the number of EV nameplates will grow from 48 at present to 159 by the end of 2025. Tesla’s current 65 percent market share is expected to fall below 20 percent by 2025 as competitors roll out new models.
So far this year, Tesla has four of the top five EV models, registration data shows. Also in the top 10 are the Kia EV6, Volkswagen ID.4, Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Bolt, according to registration data.
— Larry P. Vellequette contributed to this story.
